In 2020 déjà vu, postal service problems take center stage pre-election.
But despite shenanigans, turnout begins to improve.
Postal service delays, particularly in Gallatin County, are triggering a slate of public service announcements urging voters to return their ballot in person; this year, people are reporting not receiving their ballot in the first place. The situation is bad enough that Gallatin County issued a statement urging voters to get a replacement ballot if they had not yet received theirs.
Without Governor Bullock to hold the Postal Service accountable, there’s little chance these issues are resolved any time soon. Senator Tester has some choice words for Postmaster Dejoy on the subject:
I disagree, a little, with the Senator on this. The USPS is hiring in Bozeman. They pay $21.92 per hour, starting. That’s about $45k per year. As of July, the median single family home in Bozeman cost $745k. It’s a leadership issue, but it’s also a housing issue.
Despite postal shortcomings, turnout in Montana is starting to improve. Gallatin County now reports 40% of ballots have been returned—still the 4th lowest return rate for absentee ballots in the State. Only Glacier, Big Horn, and Richland counties report lower. As of last night, 47.9% of all absentee ballots had been returned. Most counties with larger populations are falling around that number:
Flathead: 45.5%
Cascade: 47.3%
Missoula: 49%
Lewis & Clark: 49.1%
Yellowstone: 49.7%
Lake: 51.5%
Ravalli: 52.7%
Silver Bow: 54.6%
Nevertheless, thanks to data at TargetEarly, we can tell turnout still lags behind 2018 levels. Perhaps that should not be surprising in an off year with only congressional and supreme court races. And while turnout lags, TargetEarly suggests Republican turnout in particular is far below where it should be. With 6 days to go until Election Day, nearly 30k more Republican voters cast their ballots in 2018 than have in 2022.
If you are Zinke, an already terribly unpopular Republican candidate, these numbers have to cause some heartburn. On the other hand, Tranel supporters should be happy with the demographic breakdown of early voting so far:
Voters over the age of 65—Tranel’s strongest group according to recent polling—continue to show up in great numbers while the youth vote begins to catch up.
As an aside, seeing turnout so low in Big Horn and Glacier counties is disappointing. But Nora Mabie’s insightful reporting (On the Rocky Boy Reservation, voters feel ignored, resentful) signaled this was to be expected. The story is full of heart wrenching anecdotes of a population that has been largely ignored. Shame on those who trumpet Native American rights when it suits their fundraising goals but abandon the Tribes when it matters.